Handling market uncertainty and keeping cool in tough times

With the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse back in March and other economy-related debacles, it’s easy to understand why many of us are stressed and feeling anxious about the future.

Part of this anxiety might stem from the uncertainty of not knowing what will happen next.

Will our hard earned money disappear overnight? Is it possible that the economy as we know it will fundamentally change due to recent events?

A silver lining of being in sales is that you may have some experience already dealing with uncertainty.

It is a given that day-to-day circumstances may change - you work with people who are anything but predictable. Goals and responsibilities shift, budgets are cut, initiatives are shut down. There are so many things that change even day-to-day in sales, where your success is directly tied to the people you work with.

So, you may already know how to deal with uncertainty, stress and anxiety in a healthy way. But personally, even I am scared during these times.

This is when it helps to step back and practice mental reflection. With the news cycle and media, it’s easy to read headlines which then cause you to spiral and think about everything that could go wrong.

The first exercise I like to practice is realizing what I can control vs cannot.

The circles of control, influence and externalities

The graphic below is from Neville Medhora and it shows 3 circles of control, influence and external factors. I find this mental model very useful for my chosen career in sales, but also for life in times of uncertainty.

We have limited energy that we can expend as either mental or physical output.

Why waste mental energy (or physical energy) on things outside our control?

Doing so is a recipe for anxiety and unhappiness. Instead I find it helpful to focus on the items within my “circle of control” and “circle of influence” and I end up feeling grateful.

For most of you reading this blog, you are English-speaking, educated and probably have spare time outside of work to read.

Just these two factors make it so that you are ahead of a large portion of the world’s population who don’t have the luxury of free time or perhaps may not be in an environment where they can think about more than just day-to-day survival.

In our position, we have the ability to function without many externalities affecting us.

This could always change. As we see right now, the economy is shaky, but unless you are the chairman of the Federal Reserve or an influential politician, there is very little you can do to change what will happen.

So focusing on what I can control usually helps. The phrase “ignorance is bliss” in this case is actually a good way to live your life with minimal anxiety and stress.

Stoic frameworks for dealing with uncertainty

We’ve talked about mental models of how to shift our thoughts away from things we can’t control.

What about when things we can’t control infringe into our circle of influence or control? Say for example a family member becomes sick or you and a new coworker don’t get along.

I find stoicism a good framework to do guided reflection in this area.

One of the frameworks that I resonate with most is preparing for the worst.

I really used to struggle with this way of thinking because I felt like I was being pessimistic. In fact, preparing or rather acknowledging the worst case scenario in a given situation is liberating.

Most of the time, as it relates to the minor inconveniences or uncertainties of life within my control, the worst case scenario is not that bad when looking at the bigger picture.

For example, losing a large deal in sales.

It may not feel good, but there will be another deal, and very simply put, life will go on. The pain of the lost deal will eventually subside and you will move on.

Other worst case scenarios can be more mentally taxing to cope with. Say you have a sick friend. The worst case scenario here might be their death.

This is not something you can easily brush off. It will cause pain to you and their loved ones if it happens.

But what you can do is spend more time with this friend and not squander the limited time you may have together.

I am not saying pain or stress can be totally avoided, but at least thinking about the worst case scenario can help you be intentional while also preparing and acknowledging the pain and stress potentially to come.

In a weird way, the idea of preparation for the worst, makes the outcome not as surprising if it does come to fruition.

We are not willing the bad outcome into reality. We are hoping it does not happen, but acknowledging that it is a possibility and then taking steps within our control to intentionally deal with either outcome - good or bad.

Time cures all uncertainties in life

Whether that is the passing of a loved one, or another painful event, time cures all. We all eventually die and over time, and our presence in other people’s memories will fade. This is time at a macro level.

On a day-to-day level, understanding the power of time also does help a bit in realizing that over time more information is revealed.

With the recent SVB bank collapse, many startup founders' livelihoods hung in the balance, at the mercy of federal regulators stepping in. For a few days they had no idea if their lives would drastically change in a negative way.

Over the next few days, the situation solidified, and ended in a positive outcome. The FDIC stepped in, and startups’ bank deposits were made whole. This could’ve very well ended with a different outcome.

But the fact is, this was a situation outside of most startup founders and employees control while it was happening. The most that the average person in this situation (including myself) could do was wait and see. It is during these times of uncertainty that we must practice stoicism the most.

Trying to predict or control what is out of our control, like we talked about earlier, is a recipe for pain. Acknowledging the worst case scenario, mentally preparing for it, then letting go of the anxiety attached to it (as best you can) is perhaps all we can really do.

Live your life and be content

We all ultimately need to live our lives in a way that makes us content (notice I didn’t say happy, which is a fleeting emotion).

Being grateful for what we do have is one practice that helps during uncertain times. As much as detaching from outcomes helps in dealing with stress and emotions from uncertainty, leaning into the positivity and gratitude for what we have also has a therapeutic effect.

Balance both of these practices, and hopefully we can all make it through these times of uncertainty emotionally and mentally intact, with a brighter future ahead.

Resources

• BBC article on Stoicism: The Ancient Guide for Uncertain Times

• The Daily Stoic’s article on Dealing with Stress: 12 Proven Strategies for Stress Relief from Stoicism